Accumulator bets are the easiest way for you to lose money when sports betting. If not done properly, your bank will be depleted before any big bet goes your way. Our sports betting experts tend to bet in simple outcomes, in standard odds and never cash out. And you should be doing the same.
“Almost” scoring accumulator bets
A topic that we get called upon a lot is betting accumulators. People tend to approach us by saying that their parlay strategy is great, but that they are just missing that little bit of luck because “they miss out on the big cashouts due to only one game!” And it’s always that game that they thought was secure.
We’ve talked with exasperated individuals who have missed on lifetime payouts – and we’re talking about 30,000:1 – due to a single game in long accumulators. Nevertheless, they keep on trying because “next time’s a charm” – and losing money in the entire process.
Let’s think of a simple situation in which you place an accumulator bet of 10 games with odds of 1.5 each. Ignoring any fees, the probability of winning each bet individually is 67%. Combined, they would pay 57.67:1. Sounds extremely good, given that every single bet seems likely to happen.
What if you consider that the probability of winning that accumulator is only 1.73%?
Bear this in mind every time a Facebook betting group promises you miraculous and 100% guaranteed accumulator bets paying 30,000:1. You’ll make them 0.003% of the times. Can your betting bank sustain that many losses? Moreover, are you capable of celebrating only once – or never – in several years of bets?
“It’s always one game”
Sticking with the same example, how probable do you think it is to miss by only one game when betting on accumulator bets with 10?
In this case, it would only happen 8.7% of the times – a lot more probable than winning the bet, though. A whopping 82% of the times you’ll see your accumulator bet miss on 2 to 5 games.
We understand that everyone only discusses with their friends bets that they have won or that have been close calls. However, we strongly encourage you to be fair with yourself and reflect on whether your strategy has been paying off.
What we suggest
We know it’s possible for you to profit from sports betting. We’ve pooled some money amongst friends and family to invest in sports betting. In only 2.5 years, we gave them a return of +170%!
Did that mean that we were better than anyone else in the market? Not really. We simply followed sports betting experts’ recommendations and replicated whatever they were betting on.
At that time, managing everything was a mess because we had to replicate things manually. We had to wake up very early to receive some recommendations from a Japanese expert that invested in football and could only go to bed when our NBA recommendations arrived. It was so unsustainable that we had to stop betting this way.
On top of that, after each e-mail, we only had about 5 seconds to place the bet before they were useless. There were so many bets after the e-mail was sent that the odds would drop drastically. If you were not able to get ahead of everyone, the opportunity was gone.
Automation was required, so we decided to build Betmarkets. Now everyone can follow these experts without worrying about placing the bets themselves.
From the daily contact we had – and have now more than ever – with sports betting experts, we learned several things:
The simpler, the better
Almost all experts bet on outrights, over/under or handicaps. Complex outcomes such as “player X to score first”, “first goal outside the box”, “above 0.5 goals between the 15th and the 30th minute”, or accumulator bets, are almost never used. The reasons are simple: in outlier bets such as these, the house margin is significantly bigger, and predicting probabilities is harder.
Experts tend to support the underdogs because amateur money prefers “safer” bets. These bets have a higher strike rate (of course!) but are underpaid by the betting houses. Betting this way is loss-making!
An expert will never bet in victories from Barcelona, Manchester City, Juventus, Bayern München, Celtic in their national leagues and while playing at home. Much less in an accumulator bet containing these 5 teams – a typical bet from anyone else (been there, done that). With odds of 1.10-1.15, most of the times, these bets need to payback 87-91% of the times. Although almost unbeatable at home, these clubs do not manage to win at those rates for long periods of time.
Our experts – excluding horse racing ones – usually bet on odds between 1.7 and 2.3. It is also not unusual for them to go for odds of 2.7-4.0. That’s why they can profit even with strike rates below 50%.
Cashing out is sinful – and expensive
Cashing out is sold by betting houses as the 8th wonder on Earth. What could be better than safeguarding the amount you invested in a bet while still being exposed to a few gains if the game is going your way? Making money, of course.
We strongly support that it should belong instead to Dante’s 9th circle of Hell. When you cash out, you are only giving betting houses the opportunity to charge you yet another hidden fee. The amount you receive is always significantly less than the fair value, given the game panorama at that time.