Since launching in mid-November, Betmarkets portfolio achieved a return of +3.29% until the end of 2018. Both November and December were positive. We even recovered from a severe drawdown during the first half of December. Time will tell what 2019 will bring. The first few weeks of operation left us with positive indicators towards the future.
Betmarkets portfolio: a profitable first couple of months
We launched our first public beta version of the platform in mid-November. In only 12 days, we achieved more than 1,000 users and we couldn’t be happier! The community is now closer to the 2,000 mark and growing every day. All in all, we’re super excited and working hard to further improve your experience with Betmarkets – we really appreciate all the feedback we’ve been receiving from you! We started the portfolio with 6 experts and ended the year with 10 experts in the platform. Some more are bound to enter and will become available for you to follow.
The portfolio that we’re going to report is built by dividing your balance equally amongst all experts available and by following each new one as soon as he/she is available. In this sense, if you were to follow this portfolio, you would be having 10% of your balance in each of the 10 experts available.
We are aware that some people are allocating more money than the total balance they have in the platform. That’s okay since it is not your money for now. 🙂 The more finance-savvy will see this beta version as a call option since the downside is floored at 0. Therefore, the more volatility you can onboard, the higher its value for you. However, we are not going to build our portfolio in that way. We want to do things conservatively – as you should do with any investment. So, we will be limiting our exposure to 100% of the balance.
This has been our performance so far:
November 2018: +2.11%
November was a half-month for us as Betmarkets was launched on the 15th. There were 8 experts you could have followed this month. If you had equally allocated your investment to each expert, you would have seen your balance growing by an outstanding +2.11%.
The first few days were loss-making and were followed by a strong string of gains. There, the portfolio increased in value by 1.81% in just one week. The rest of the month saw some days of small gains/losses. The portfolio ended the month at its peak, having gained 2.11% during the period. The performance has ranged from -3.85% to +2.11% during the month.
Our experts had the following performance during November:
December 2018: +1.18% (+3.29% overall)
Another profitable month for our portfolio, but one that saw a very strong and lasting drawdown before picking up the pace again.
The month started with a bang with the portfolio gaining almost 3.5% on the 1st of December. This was followed by a long drawdown that lasted 18 days. The portfolio dropped almost 7.3% (!) in that period to -1.67%. Afterwards, our experts recovered and ended the month – and the year – with a +3.29% return in just 1.5 months. Indeed, strong volatility is to be expected in the short-term – and periods of losses will inevitably occur (as they already did) – but, on the long-term, the edge that these experts have shown against the market ends up surfacing.
Severe drawdowns can occur
For example, Andy Johnson lost a massive 30.48% during December – his worst month in almost 5 years of betting professionally. Still, his bets in the platform achieved a very significant market edge – he has been beating the closing odds of the market – and that indicates that he is able to deliver a return in the long-term and luck (or lack of it) is the only driver of his short-term results! And, if you were following several experts throughout the whole month, you would still end up positive despite this terrible performance of one expert.
Throughout the month, we added 2 more experts – Ricsilva and Bene Santiago -, ending the year with 10 experts that you can follow. Some others will be introduced in the upcoming weeks! In addition, we’ve been working hard to roll out a new layout of our platform and we hope to send out the first few pages in the upcoming weeks for you to start using them.
Going through some figures – considering an equal allocation of your investment to each expert and using only 100% of your balance – you would have seen your balance growing this month by 1.18%. As for the range, it went from -1.67% to +5.63% (in cumulative performance).
Our experts had the following performance during the month of December:
This has been the daily evolution of the performance of our portfolio since its inception. The bolded figures represent the end of each month.
The initial performance of the portfolio has been positive. In addition, our experts have been able to beat the closing odds of the market. If they keep on doing this, they will tend to profit in the long-term.
The portfolio has been displaying an annualised standard deviation of 19.18% (EDIT: Initially showing the value for monthly standard deviation – 3.48% – instead of the one for yearly standard deviation). For comparison, the S&P500 is usually in the 10-15% range. This means that, for the returns one might be able to get from it, the risk level has been acceptable. Another thing that is interesting to add is that the behaviour of our portfolio is entirely independent from the one of the S&P500 (and of other indices). In fact, we had a positive month of December while the stock indices plunged in the worst December since the Great Depression…
What we expect for 2019
During 2019 we will continue adding more experts to our platform. With the increased number of bets, both from new and current experts, the portfolio will start to exhibit a steadier behaviour. It’s standard deviation will decrease due to the independence between the performances of each expert. Winning runs by some will be compensated by losing runs of others but, on average, the impact of being able to beat the market should start arising. That is the power of diversification and the main reason for you to follow several experts simultaneously.
Time will tell whether the portfolio will behave as expected during this year. One thing we can share, we are aiming to beat the long-term risk and inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 of 6% per year while keeping lower volatility levels.
If you would like to have a closer look into the portfolio of sports betting experts we are offering, register at Betmarkets. In this beta version we are giving you €20 to invest until the end of it. No deposit required. At the end of it, this amount is withdrawn and you get to keep all profits (in the case of a loss, it’s entirely on us).