Since launching in mid-November 2018, Betmarkets portfolio achieved a return of +6.79% until the end of April. This month saw the portfolio closing strongly (+1.64%) after touching a minimum at +4.39% the week before – still 0.56% above the minimum from the previous month! Not renewing minimums is a strong indication of an upward trend in the performance of this portfolio.
Betmarkets portfolio: steady month with great finish
April came to an end with more than 3,600 active users in Betmarkets and great engagement in our Betmarkets Community on Facebook. We were invited to yet another podcast, this time Empreendedores.pt from Hugo Belchior, Bwizer Founder & CEO [content in Portuguese].
We are close to publishing an entirely new layout for the experts’ side of the platform – as we’ve done in January for the users’ side. We aim to publish it within the next two weeks. This will further ease the placement of bets from the experts, improve the overall feel and usability from the platform and increase the data that experts have available regarding their following.
We support English, Portuguese, Finnish, Swedish, Croatian, Spanish and French. Italian will be the next one to be published. What’s even more amazing is that all of these translations have only been made possible through the help of our community (thank you!). Shoot us an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like to see your native language in the platform! We are happy to help.
We did not add any experts to our portfolio this month. We are very happy with the 25 that are with us as of now. We keep prospecting to further increase that figure, mainly exploring new sports to keep the volume up during other sports’ Summer off-season.
If you haven’t done so already, make sure to check our previous monthly reports:
- November and December 2018: a profitable first couple of months [figures amended in January’s report: +2.86% and +1.13%]
- January 2019: slow and steady wins the race [+0.41%]
- February 2019: our experts had something to say [+1.68%]
- March 2019: all-time highs before closing below [-0.93%]
The portfolio that we’re going to report is built by dividing your balance equally amongst all experts available and by following each new one as soon as he/she is available. In this sense, if you were to follow this portfolio, you would be reallocating your balance everytime a new expert is added. The risk/return level of the presented portfolio is the lowest in our scale – low. Performance for a portfolio of medium risk/return is 1.5x the one of this portfolio. Lastly, performance for a portfolio of high risk/return is 2.0x the one of the presented portfolio. Remember that the volatily of these riskier portfolios increases along the same lines.
Given the high diversification offered by following several experts – independent between them – we might consider offering even higher risk/return levels – these are under discussion, but will almost certainly only be offered to users who have diversified their portfolios with 5+ experts. Otherwise, their risk of ruining – losing the entire investment in a downswing – would be unmanageable.
April 2019: +1.64% (+6.79% overall)
We closed March with a cumulative return of +5.15%. The month started with a very positive performance – touched +6.28% upon closing on 04/04. The following fortnight had a negative trend, with the portfolio closing on +4.39% on the 22/04. The great momentum from the start of the month happened again afterwards. From the 22nd to the end of the month, the portfolio gained 2.40% to close at its maximum point during the month (+6.79%).
Yet again, the minimum from the previous month has not been renewed. The lowest point in March was achieved at a return of +3.83%. April’s minimum was +4.39%, 0.56% above! Thus, our hypothesis of an upward trend in the portfolio’s performance has been supported by real data. Sure, there will be more losing months. And we will even see terrible months ahead of us! However, on the long-term, we are confident that our experts will manage to prove their advantage against the market.
A world-class performance from one of our experts
Mike Shaw left us without words with a +55.7% monthly gain. David and portugaltipster also deserve to be highlighted with gains of +9.72% and +8.21%, respectively.
This has been the daily evolution of the gross performance of our portfolio since its inception. The bolded figures represent the end of each month.
One of the major things to take out of this graph is that we are not renewing minimums. The lowest point in April saw the portfolio with a 4.39% return, 0.56% above March’s minimum. If our experts are able to keep behaving this way, we have a great indicator towards an upward trend in our performance – this is indeed helped by the Market Edge of our experts, as described later.
We ended April with an annualised standard deviation of 11.88%, from 12.41% at the end of March. This figure will continue to run down as the contribution of the initial days – where we only had a handful of experts – diminishes.
In fact, if we only consider for this computation the performance of the portfolio when it had 15+ experts (21st January onwards), we can see that the figure drops substantially. Under those conditions, our annualised standard deviation would be of 8.01%. We should start tending towards that figure – or even lower – as days go by.
Our portfolio has been achieving a great risk/return profile. The inclusion of new experts will further strengthen this profile – reducing volatily. In addition, we shall be more and more positive about our predictions as we pile up observations, increasing the statistical confidence of the analyses.
We are also compiling information on the Market Edge, that is, the advantage of the experts against the overall market (measured by the comparison between the odds they bet on and the closing odds – statistically speaking, the best predictors of the true probability of the event). We are happy to announce that we closed April with a Market Edge of 2.47%. 0.06% above March’s figure. Given that the fees of the betting providers we work with are in the range of 1.7%-2.0%, even by picking randomly the bets (as to say, even without any “skill” at all), these experts will tend to profit in the long-term. This is just due to grabbing higher odds than what the market settles as fair. And that is a big reason that supports Betmarkets as an investment.
Experts that do not achieve a Market Edge above the spread will need skill to profit in the long-run. Another thing to take into consideration is the betting style of each expert. The Market Edge each one attains will deeply depend on it. For example, if you mostly rely on LIVE bets, your Market Edge will only be computed based on a small fraction of all your bets (only the Pre-match ones can have Market Edge).
The figures presented below are cumulative from January 23rd onwards. When we published the new layout, changing the operational structure of the platform, some data had to be reset. Their significance will, as well, increase with the growth in the number of observations for each expert.
The first six months of Betmarkets
Our userbase performance
Once again, the presented figures only consider the performance from January 23rd onwards. Upon the end of April, 75.8% of our active users with more than a month of platform usage were profitable. This figure was 62.1% in March. Furthermore, this percentage expands if we only consider users with, at least, a certain number of bets. Or, going straight to the point, following more experts increases your chances of a positive performance!
Most of our users have achieved a return between 0 and 10% since they entered the platform. There are roughly as many users whose profitability is between 10 and 20% as the ones with a loss smaller than 10%. A significant number of users have been able to achieve returns upwards of 50%!
Bear in mind that the latter will certainly be following a small number of experts with a high risk level. Those users will also be the most affected by relevant downswings from the experts they have selected. Having rollercoaster returns is never advisable in an investment. However, if you are lucky enough to catch a relevant upswing, you can grab significant gains. The downside is that you might be caught in a downswing and you’ll lose a significant part of your investment. Luck always runs out, careful management and long-term focus do not. We advise you to diversify by following at least 5 experts and focus on the long-term gains that our product might give you.
Average net performance per user
On average, our users are having a +13.7% net profit. This is represented by the orange line below. Comparing this figure to the one of our portfolio tells us that the average risk level is above low (as expected) and that either users have been able to follow the experts that have been granting them the best performance or users have been allocating a larger percentage of their investments to those. Regardless of the reason, it is great to know that they have been able to outperform a portfolio composed of an equal allocation to all experts under the safest conditions.
In the graph above, one can also see the few users that are having a significant loss on their portfolios. Almost all of them chose only one expert with the highest risk level. 62 users are having a loss superior to 20%, 6 are losing more than 50%. This compares to the 830 who are profiting more than 20%. Of those, 307 are profiting more than 50%.
What we expect for the remainder of 2019
During 2019 we will continue adding more experts to our platform. With the increased number of bets, the portfolio will start to exhibit a steadier behaviour. Its standard deviation will decrease due to the independence between the performances of each expert. Winning runs by some compensate losing runs of others. On average, the impact of being able to beat the market should start arising. That is the power of diversification and the main reason for you to follow several experts simultaneously.
We are aiming to beat the long-term risk and inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 of 6% per year while keeping lower volatility levels. If we manage to keep up this pace, we will certainly surpass the goal. Moreover, we’ll achieve a lower volatility level than the one of the index.
Try this Beta version without any risk
If you would like to have a closer look into the portfolio of sports betting experts we are offering, register at Betmarkets. In this beta version we are giving you €10 to invest until the end of it.
In addition, you can use the promo code BM252 to receive another €10 to invest! 🙂 No deposit required. We will withdraw this amount when this version ends. You get to keep all profits as credit towards future experts’ profit-sharing commissions. In the case of a loss, it’s entirely on us.