Since launching in mid-November 2018, Betmarkets portfolio achieved a loss of -0.14% until the end of August. The Summer saw the professional bettors in our platform dip far from the maximum that they have already achieved (+7.04% in March), but their long-term indicators remain positive and those are the most relevant. They are already preparing towards the new season!
Betmarkets portfolio: welcoming the new season
August was spent setting up the structure so that we can soon accept deposits – that is to say, launch officially! It’s taking longer than initially expected, but we keep focused on delivering and on using this extra time to improve the product and the offering of professional bettors. Some other surprises are up our sleeves, but there will be a time to share them with all of you.
Thank you for bearing with us during this beta version and we know that what is ahead of us will make it worth it! The community is already 6,000-strong and this lays the foundations for a successful launch. Feedback has been very positive from all stakeholders and we are all living with anticipation towards the date of the official launch. As soon as we have a date on our hands we will share it with you.
A significant list of professional bettors, household names in the industry, has been queued up and they are all excited to join the platform upon the official launch. We are certain that this will further improve the value of our service. AF Bets and collbet, two professional bettors on european soccer, have accepted the challenge and joined the platform straight away.
If you haven’t done so already, make sure to check our previous monthly reports:
- November and December 2018: a profitable first couple of months [figures amended in January’s report: +2.86% and +1.13%]
- January 2019: slow and steady wins the race [+0.41%]
- February 2019: our experts had something to say [+1.68%]
- March 2019: all-time highs before closing below [-0.93%]
- April 2019: steady month with great finish [+1.64%]
- May 2019: a losing month [-1.92%]
- June 2019: some days of turmoil [-2.13%]
- July 2019: lower volume equals higher volatility [-0.96%]
The portfolio that we’re going to report is built by dividing your balance equally amongst all professional bettors available and by following each new one as soon as he/she is available. In this sense, if you were to follow this portfolio, you would be reallocating your balance every time a new expert is added. The risk/return level of the presented portfolio is the lowest in our scale – low. Performance for a portfolio of medium risk/return is 1.5x the one of this portfolio. Lastly, performance for a portfolio of high risk/return is 2.0x the one of the presented portfolio. Remember that the volatily of these riskier portfolios increases along the same lines.
August 2019: -1.88% (-0.14% overall)
We closed July with a cumulative return of +1.74%. August started in a positive manner, achieving a maximum of +2.18% on the 5th August but had a negative tendency afterwards. The portfolio reached a minimum of -0.22% on the 20th August and saw a small recovery afterwards to positive grounds. However, it ended below the water for the first time since its launch, at -0.14%. The monthly Market Edge was 0.69%, below the required level to assure a long-term positive performance. So, to no surprise, the month ended in a loss.
A losing month for most bettors
August was a losing month for the majority of professional bettors within Betmarkets. Andy Johnson deserves praise, though, as he achieved a return of +6.63% during the month. Mike Shaw kept his dreadful record this Summer, with a -25.20% loss, but his experience will soon allow him to rebound. Horse racing is prone to extreme volatility, so you should always diversify properly your portfolio if you want to invest in bettors on this sports.
The previous table only includes DutchDota2 (removed from the platform due to a behaviour change) in his overall impact of the portfolio performance.
This has been the daily evolution of the gross performance of our portfolio since its inception. The bolded figures represent the end of each month.
The Market Edge of the professional bettors will enable them to have a positive performance in the long-term. If they are able to keep attaining this Market Edge, this product will deliver a long-term positive performance. That is the most important, regardless of the short-term market fluctuations.
We ended August with an annualised standard deviation of 9.55%, from 9.91% at the end of June. This figure will continue to run down as the contribution of the initial days – where we only had a handful of professional bettors – diminishes. The inclusion of new professional bettors will further reduce volatility. In addition, we shall be more and more positive about our predictions as we pile up observations. This will increase the statistical confidence of the analyses.
We are also compiling information on the Market Edge, that is, the advantage of the professional bettors against the overall market (measured by the comparison between the odds they bet on and the closing odds – statistically speaking, the best predictors of the true probability of the event). We closed August with a Market Edge of 2.03%. 0.14% below July’s figure. During August, Market Edge stood below the 2.0% threshold. Professional bettors did not manage to beat the market only by grabbing higher odds.
With a Market Edge above 2.0%, given that the fees of the betting providers we work with are in the range of 1.7%-2.0%, even by picking randomly the bets (as to say, even without any “skill” at all), these professional bettors will tend to profit in the long-term. This is just due to grabbing higher odds than what the market settles as fair. And that is a big reason that supports Betmarkets as an investment.
Changes with the official launch
After we launch, the threshold for the Market Edge (ensuring long-term positive performance) will be lower. And this is massive! Until now, we’ve been working with regular accounts – with still significant fees – from the launch onwards we will have corporate accounts with the providers. Those will have bonified spreads, allowing us to have an improved performance. On the long-term, this factor alone can account for a few percentage points of annual return.
Professional bettors that do not achieve a Market Edge above the spread will need skill to profit in the long-run. Another thing to take into consideration is the betting style of each professional bettor. The Market Edge each one attains will deeply depend on it. For example, if you mostly rely on LIVE bets, your Market Edge will only be computed based on a small fraction of all your bets (only the Pre-match ones can have Market Edge).
The figures presented below are cumulative from January 23rd onwards. When we published the new layout, changing the operational structure of the platform, some data had to be reset. Their significance will, as well, increase with the growth in the number of observations for each professional bettor.
What we expect for the remainder of 2019
During 2019 we will continue adding more professional bettors to our platform. With the increased number of bets, the portfolio will start to exhibit a steadier behaviour. Its standard deviation will decrease due to the independence between the performances of each professional bettor. Winning runs by some compensate losing runs of others. On average, the impact of being able to beat the market should start arising. That is the power of diversification and the main reason for you to follow several professional bettors simultaneously.
We are aiming to beat the long-term risk and inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 of 6% per year while keeping lower volatility levels.
Try this Beta version without any risk
If you would like to have a closer look into the portfolio of professional bettors we are offering, register at Betmarkets. In this beta version we are giving you €10 to invest until the end of it.
In addition, you can use the promo code BM252 to receive another €10 to invest! 🙂 No deposit required. We will withdraw this amount when this version ends. You get to keep all profits as credit towards future bettors’ profit-sharing commissions. In the case of a loss, it’s entirely on us.