Since launching in mid-November 2018, Betmarkets portfolio achieved a return of +6.08% until the end of February. This month saw the portfolio increasing in value with a great performance in the last week! We have to disclose that we thought that this would be our first month with a loss. However, our experts had something to say! In addition, we continue to see the effects of adding more experts to the portfolio: lower volatility!
Betmarkets portfolio: our experts had something to say
We are currently expanding the set of languages we offer in the platform. In addition to English, Portuguese and Finnish, we just added Swedish and Croatian. We will soon publish a Spanish and French version of our platform. What’s even more amazing is that all of these translations have only been made possible through the help of our community (thank you!). Shoot us an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like to see your native language in the platform! We are happy to help.
We added 8 more experts to our portfolio and we’ll keep on growing. Could have added a lot more, but our criteria is even stricter now than what it was on day one. This way, you can be sure of one thing: if you can find a given expert on Betmarkets, it means he/she has really proven his/her quality and is well regarded amongst his/her peers! We are also expanding in terms of sports offered at Betmarkets: in February, we added esports and MMA. Are esports still too far-fetched for you? Take a look here in order to learn how to bet on esports!
If you haven’t done so already, make sure to check our previous monthly reports:
- November and December 2018: a profitable first couple of months [figures amended in January’s report]
- January 2019: slow and steady wins the race
The portfolio that we’re going to report is built by dividing your balance equally amongst all experts available and by following each new one as soon as he/she is available. In this sense, if you were to follow this portfolio, you would be reallocating your balance everytime a new expert is added.
February 2019: +1.68% (+6.08% overall)
We closed January with a cumulative return of +4.40%. This month opened with a couple of positive days, having the portfolio achieved a +4.52% return as of 02/02. Then, our experts went into a series of bad results that saw the portfolio return shrink to +2.77% as of 20/02, very far from the +4.40% we started the month with!
We were already thinking that February would be our first losing month since the beginning of the Beta version. However, our experts had something (and a big thing!) to say about this! From the 20/02 to the 27/02, our experts rallied and increased the portfolio performance to an astonishing +6.20%! The last day of the month saw a slight drop and we closed the month with +6.08%.
New additions left an impression
A word to the main contributors towards this recovery: the new experts we have added and some experts that were sustaining losing runs. From the former, David, DutchDota2 and dutchinsider deserve the highlight because they had a stunning performance during their first few weeks with the platform – in the same fashion as Bene Santiago throughout December and January! As for the latter, both Andy Johnson and Jack Wilson recovered – completely or partly – on a stellar fashion during the last few days of the month.
Since we touched upon the name of some of the new experts we have added, we think that it more than fair to shortly present each one of them. The presented order uses the date in which they have joined the platform:
- David bets on tennis, mostly on ATP
- dutchinsider bets on football, in the Dutch leagues
- dkbet bets on several sports – albeit focused on football and handball – mostly in Denmark or with Danish teams
- Esports Expert bets on esports, specialising on CS:GO
- DutchDota2 bets on esports as well, specialising on Dota 2
- Rising Sun bets on football, on leagues from Asia and Oceania – mostly, he works with the Japanese and Australian first divisions
- basketballbroker bets on basketball, both on the NBA and on European leagues
- Heider89 bets on MMA, both on the UFC and Bellator
This has been the daily evolution of the performance of our portfolio since its inception. It has been amended by the same reasons presented earlier. The bolded figures represent the end of each month.
One of the things we would also like to point out is that, so far, our portfolio has not been renewing minimums. The lowest points in November and December were, respectively, -1.86% and -0.86%. In 2019, after reaching a first peak of 5.39%, the portfolio dropped to 2.35%, and is yet to touch that level again. The lowest point in February saw the portfolio with a 2.77% return, 0.42% above January’s minimum.
With the addition of more experts to the portfolio, its volatility has been decreasing steadily, as expected. We ended February with an annualised standard deviation of 13.43%, from 14.97% at the end of January. This figure will continue to run down as the contribution of the initial days – where we only had a handful of experts – diminishes.
In fact, if we only consider for this computation the performance of the portfolio when it had 15+ experts (21st January onwards), we can see that the figure drops substantially. Under those conditions, our annualised standard deviation would be of 7.70%. We should start tending towards that figure – or even lower – as days go by.
With the great performance occurred at the end of the month, our portfolio has been achieving a great risk/return profile. The inclusion of new experts will further strengthen this profile – reducing volatily. In addition, we shall be more and more positive about our predictions as we pile up observations, increasing the statistical confidence of the analyses.
We are also compiling information on the Market Edge, that is, the advantage of the experts against the overall market (measured by the comparison between the odds they bet on and the closing odds – statistically speaking, the best predictors of the true probability of the event). We are happy to announce that we closed February with a Market Edge of 2.37%. Given that the fees of the betting providers we work with are in the range of 1.7%-2.0%, even by picking randomly the bets (as to say, even without any “skill” at all), these experts will tend to profit in the long-term. This is just due to grabbing higher odds than what the market settles as fair.
Experts that do not achieve a Market Edge above the spread of the betting provider will need skill to profit in the long-run. Another thing to take into consideration is the betting style of each expert. The Market Edge each one attains will deeply depend on it. “How?”, you might ask.
How do betting styles affect the Market Edge?
Well, a major factor is the antecedency with which you bet. Some experts prefer to decide based only on partial information, and so bet earlier. Others will only bet when the market already considered and priced in all (possible) information. The latter will only bet a few minutes before the start of the match – when knowing lineups, for example – and so their market edge will be very close to zero. In most situations, the market will not move significantly between the moment of the bet and the start of the match. Experts with this strategy will only be able to rely on their own skill since they won’t be grabbing better odds than the market.
The figures presented below are cumulative from January 23rd onwards. When we published the new layout, with changes to the operational structure of the platform, some data had to be reset. Their significance will, as well, increase with the growth in the number of observations for each expert.
Our userbase performance
Once again, the presented figures only consider the performance from January 23rd onwards. Upon the end of February, 82.4% of our active users with more than a month of platform usage were profitable. Furthermore, this percentage expands if we only consider users with, at least, a certain number of bets. Or, going straight to the point, following more experts increases your chances of a positive performance!
What we expect for the remainder of 2019
During 2019 we will continue adding more experts to our platform. With the increased number of bets, the portfolio will start to exhibit a steadier behaviour. It’s standard deviation will decrease due to the independence between the performances of each expert. Winning runs by some compensate losing runs of others. On average, the impact of being able to beat the market should start arising. That is the power of diversification and the main reason for you to follow several experts simultaneously.
We are aiming to beat the long-term risk and inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 of 6% per year while keeping lower volatility levels. At the moment, we have already achieved the return we have defied ourselves to achieve during one full-year of operations. If we manage to keep up this pace, we will certainly surpass the goal. Moreover, we’ll achieve a lower volatility level than the one of the index.
We would be even happier if we manage to do so while never surpassing the minimum from the previous months. That might be a longshot… However, some horses quoted at 30.00+ sometimes win, and experts back them if they see value in those odds!
Try this Beta version without any risk
If you would like to have a closer look into the portfolio of sports betting experts we are offering, register at Betmarkets. In this beta version we are giving you €10 to invest until the end of it. Also, you can use the promo code BM252 to receive another €10 to invest! 🙂 No deposit required. We will withdraw this amount when this version ends. You get to keep all profits as credit towards future experts’ profit-sharing commissions. In the case of a loss, it’s entirely on us.