Since launching in mid-November 2018, Betmarkets portfolio achieved a return of +5.15% until the end of March. This month saw the portfolio losing (-0.93%) for the first time, even though it reached its all-time maximum at +7.04% (+7.31% if we consider intra-day figures as well). There’s one major aspect we want you to focus on: we are not renewing minimums from previous months! We see that as a strong indication of an upward trend in the performance of this portfolio. Hopefully, our experts will manage to confirm it in the upcoming months.
Betmarkets portfolio: all-time highs before closing below
March came to an end with more than 2,800 active users in Betmarkets and great engagement in our Betmarkets Community on Facebook. We were invited to speak in an event in a local highschool and participated in a podcast [content in Portuguese].
Little time-travelling here… On the first of April, we just published the French version of our platform.
We now support English, Portuguese, Finnish, Swedish, Croatian, Spanish and French. Italian will be the next one to be published. What’s even more amazing is that all of these translations have only been made possible through the help of our community (thank you!). Shoot us an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like to see your native language in the platform! We are happy to help.
Back to March then… We added 1 more expert to our portfolio, for a grand total of 25. His name is Rafa and he is a football expert specialising in the Brazilian leagues. Could have added a lot more by now, but our criteria is very strict. Sticking to the experts’ side of the platform, March saw the design and development of major improvements to it. Although we still cannot provide a defined timeline for it to be published, we can assure that it will remain as one of the major tasks in-hands until then.
If you haven’t done so already, make sure to check our previous monthly reports:
- November and December 2018: a profitable first couple of months [figures amended in January’s report]
- January 2019: slow and steady wins the race
- February 2019: our experts had something to say
The portfolio that we’re going to report is built by dividing your balance equally amongst all experts available and by following each new one as soon as he/she is available. In this sense, if you were to follow this portfolio, you would be reallocating your balance everytime a new expert is added.
March 2019: -0.93% (+5.15% overall)
We closed February with a cumulative return of +6.08%. The month had a very positive tone – reached all-time highs of +7.04% – up until the mid of it. We closed 15/03 with +6.73%. Then, statistics caught up to us – we don’t want to call it bad luck! The two following days were dark given that the portfolio dropped 2.36% to +4.37% (!). The minimum of the month was reached the following day, at +3.83% – 1.06% above the minimum of the previous month. The rest of the month saw the portfolio recovering – but not enough to reach positive ground again – to +5.15%.
Large recoveries from experts, but not enough
Andy Johnson shone the brightest this month with a gain of +40.2%. Jack Wilson also managed to recover most of his previous loss by gaining +19.1%. However, most experts sustained a loss, turning this into our first negative month. David and DutchDota2 had particularly bad runs, after an explendid month of February!
This has been the daily evolution of the gross performance of our portfolio since its inception. The bolded figures represent the end of each month.
One of the major things to take out of this graph is that we are not renewing minimums. The lowest point in March saw the portfolio with a 3.83% return, 1.06% above February’s minimum. If our experts are able to keep behaving this way, we have a great indicator towards an upward trend in our performance – this is indeed helped by the Market Edge of our experts, as described later.
With the addition of more experts to the portfolio, its volatility has been decreasing steadily, as expected. We ended March with an annualised standard deviation of 12.41%, from 13.43% at the end of January. This figure will continue to run down as the contribution of the initial days – where we only had a handful of experts – diminishes.
In fact, if we only consider for this computation the performance of the portfolio when it had 15+ experts (21st January onwards), we can see that the figure drops substantially. Under those conditions, our annualised standard deviation would be of 8.01% – larger than the one at the end of February due to the sharp drop during the middle of March. We should start tending towards that figure – or even lower – as days go by.
Even with the loss during this month, our portfolio has been achieving a great risk/return profile. The inclusion of new experts will further strengthen this profile – reducing volatily. In addition, we shall be more and more positive about our predictions as we pile up observations, increasing the statistical confidence of the analyses.
We are also compiling information on the Market Edge, that is, the advantage of the experts against the overall market (measured by the comparison between the odds they bet on and the closing odds – statistically speaking, the best predictors of the true probability of the event). We are happy to announce that we closed March with a Market Edge of 2.41%. Adding 0.04% to February’s figure (on average, the bets during March would yield a positive result; however, it did not happen this time). Given that the fees of the betting providers we work with are in the range of 1.7%-2.0%, even by picking randomly the bets (as to say, even without any “skill” at all), these experts will tend to profit in the long-term. This is just due to grabbing higher odds than what the market settles as fair.
Experts that do not achieve a Market Edge above the spread will need skill to profit in the long-run. Another thing to take into consideration is the betting style of each expert. The Market Edge each one attains will deeply depend on it. For example, if you mostly rely on LIVE bets, your Market Edge will only be computed based on a small fraction of all your bets (only the Pre-match ones can have Market Edge).
The figures presented below are cumulative from January 23rd onwards. When we published the new layout, with changes to the operational structure of the platform, some data had to be reset. Their significance will, as well, increase with the growth in the number of observations for each expert.
Our userbase performance
Once again, the presented figures only consider the performance from January 23rd onwards. Upon the end of March, 62.1% of our active users with more than a month of platform usage were profitable. This figure was 82.4% in February, before this negative month. Furthermore, this percentage expands if we only consider users with, at least, a certain number of bets. Or, going straight to the point, following more experts increases your chances of a positive performance!
What we expect for the remainder of 2019
During 2019 we will continue adding more experts to our platform. With the increased number of bets, the portfolio will start to exhibit a steadier behaviour. Its standard deviation will decrease due to the independence between the performances of each expert. Winning runs by some compensate losing runs of others. On average, the impact of being able to beat the market should start arising. That is the power of diversification and the main reason for you to follow several experts simultaneously.
We are aiming to beat the long-term risk and inflation-adjusted return of the S&P500 of 6% per year while keeping lower volatility levels. If we manage to keep up this pace, we will certainly surpass the goal. Moreover, we’ll achieve a lower volatility level than the one of the index.
Try this Beta version without any risk
If you would like to have a closer look into the portfolio of sports betting experts we are offering, register at Betmarkets. In this beta version we are giving you €10 to invest until the end of it.
In addition, you can use the promo code BM252 to receive another €10 to invest! 🙂 No deposit required. We will withdraw this amount when this version ends. You get to keep all profits as credit towards future experts’ profit-sharing commissions. In the case of a loss, it’s entirely on us.