If you are reading this blog post, it is very likely that you know how hard it is to consistently pick profitable sports betting selections. It’s even harder to know how to choose the best sports betting experts! As you discovered Betmarkets, you might be wondering that, now, you have an A-game when it comes to select winning bets. Even though we would love to assure you this, the reality is that you are still the one who sets which sports bets to wager. How? Well, you are the one who decides which sports betting experts to follow.
How to choose the best sports betting experts
At Betmarkets, we operate a very strict admission process in regards to accepting sports betting experts. We know that not everyone is an experienced sports betting investor. Therefore, we try to improve your chances to achieve positive results, no matter which experts you back. However, you take the final decision and we believe you would agree that the more knowledge you have, the better.
When you are looking to add a new sports betting expert to your portfolio, you have plenty of options. There is the one that excels in Spanish soccer, the other that beats the market in women’s Tennis, and so on. As they are at Betmarkets, they have, at least, hundreds of bets, usually from a couple of years or more. Thus, we still recommend you to give extra points to the more experienced. You can measure this by number of bets and time of activity.
At this stage, besides the two previous KPIs we touched-base, you should also consider two more: Performance and Edge. Generally speaking, experts that achieve higher figures in these two fields are the best. Now you are ready to go deep on an expert’s analysis! You can find below 2 steps to assess whether you really want to follow that expert or not. Afterwards, a 3rd step comes on how to best build your portfolio of sports betting experts.
Step 1 – Results
“Uhhh, again? Who doesn’t know that?”. It looks obvious, but, by results, we do not mean that greenish magic number you are used to see. Yes, we show Performance so you can compare different sports betting experts, although we recommend you to not take it in more consideration than a preliminar indicator. When you are assessing the past performance of a given expert’s bets, you should look at three different key points: his betting pattern, how much he bets in each bet and his results’ consistency.
Usually, it is possible to identify a pattern of betting for each expert. Some bet in odds close to 2.00, while others prefer underdogs. Some bet always in the same market type (e.g. asian handicap), while others jump in between markets. Such as picking a team to win or a number of goals to be scored. The important part here is focus. They are experts because they proved they can deliver superior returns in something. For no surprise, that something is their betting pattern. All in all, search for experts that have the same betting style since the beginning. This means that they do not chase losses by placing more bets, at different odds, in unusual markets.
Doubling down when losing
The easiest way to manipulate results is to increase stakes as you lose. Suppose an expert loses 10 bets in a row – then, if he places 6 bets with a double stake, he will account for profits, which are unreal or, at least, are misleading. Therefore, before following an expert, a good practice is to see if the expert places always the same amount of money in each bet or, if they do not do so, if their results are not widely affected by winning bets with higher stakes in opposition to losing bets with lower ones.
Keeping its cool
If an expert is going well in your assessment up to this point, it is likely that he is a good pick and this last condition does not go against him. Consistency is key. No matter what. Someone who is by far the best in a month, the worst in the following, and is able to climb to the top again, is probably not the best pick. It is your money that is on the table and, therefore, you should look at assets that have the potential to deliver positive, but steady, returns. There is simply no reason to join an investment rollercoaster. Sports betting is already a volatile asset, there’s no need for more uncertainty on top. This doesn’t indicate that experts are not allowed to have bad-runs, as they do happen, and without any impact on their long-term performance.
Step 2 – Specialisation
Building a sports betting experts’ portfolio is like a game of chess. There are several sports you can pick experts from and they can be subdivided by competitions or geographies. Focus is key – after all, you are picking a sports betting expert and it is impossible to be an expert, in anything, if you are not specialised.
One could argue that you should search for experts in the 3rd division of a given sport of a given country. It sounds reasonable and it is a good motto. However, the required degree of specialisation does not need to be exaggerated. The most common approach, that we recommend, is to seek experts specialised in one sport in one geography. In soccer, as an example, there are experts that work their domestic competitions and international events where their domestic teams are present.
The key take-away, besides specialisation, is balance. There are experts that work more than one sport in more than one country, but as they are limited to some geography (for instance, the Balkans), they still account for the required degree of specialisation to potentially deliver positive returns. A good advice might be to conduct a bottom-up analysis instead of a traditional one. With this, we mean it might be good to search for red flags instead of going through your requirements checklist. Obviously, you should be careful in considering an expert in handball, volleyball and basketball, all at the same time. But, if these are the 3 biggest sports in a region, and that expert is a native person, should you be that rigid?
Step 3 – Building a team of experts
“Experts assemble!” is not something you would be saying – or thinking – a lot. However, as the Avengers, experts do give you better results if they’re working as contributing pieces to a portfolio, instead of acting solo. Following several of them – we recommend 5+ – allows you to compensate some bad-runs that inevitably happen without forfeiting the returns! By effectively spreading your investments amongst several experts, the fluctuations in your account will be a lot less impactful. Remember that diversification is key for a successful investor. And we can even extrapolate this reasoning for your overall portfolio of investments: make sure to invest in several assets which are independent from eachother, in order to be shielded from a large drop in value due to catastrophic development in one of your investments.
In Betmarkets we offer you several sports and geographies to choose from. The right expert will know how to find value in some of the matches of that given league and sport. Since market inefficiencies can occur everywhere, you need to find several experts who will detect when those market inefficiencies occur. Even if, for example, the five best experts – by all-time performance – at any time in the platform happen to work all with the same sport and/or geography, it’s probably not the best choice to pick all five – and only them – for your portfolio. Doing that would yield that several opportunities would go unnoticed in other areas since you are not following an expert that focuses on those.
Another thing you should concern yourself with is about the potential overlapping between experts. Algorithms and traditional experts alike are fallible, of course. Most mistakes arise because they have to make a decision with incomplete information – without knowing the line-ups, for example – as to benefit from the fluctuations of the market until the initial whistle. That is the point where all information has been absorbed by the market and the closing odds, the fairest ones given the overall market, are set.
There will be cases where, within Betmarkets, one expert thinks he/she is spotting value in a given outcome and another thinks that value is present on the contrarian outcome. When both bets are placed before the start of the match – and unless the market has shifted heavily – you’ll tend to lose the spread of the betting provider on that bet. Very rarely, you’ll guarantee a secure profit pre-live, when both bets are placed with odds above 2.00.
Managing the portfolio
Ok, you have built the perfect portfolio of experts according to your profile. Awesome! Now you just have to sit back and let them work. After a few months (or even 1+ years, if the betting turnover is not significant), you should be able to start analysing whether the results adhere to your expectations. The short-term is completely unreliable as the experts’ edge only starts showing in the medium to long-term.
Another thing to take into account is updating the investment after a given period. We defend that you should not update the investment very frequently, but wait for a significant buffer before you do such. For example, update the investment every 3 months according to the performance or increase it by half of a given positive performance. One of the most common mistake is to quickly update the investment after a good-run. Greed takes the place of reasoning and one is only thinking of “I could have won more”. Well, truth is, you can now lose more! After an amazing run of +10%, if you increase your investment to 1.1x, a loss of 9.1% will kick you back to square one. And, if you lose those same 10%, you will be below water – not breakeven!
Kickstart your journey
Betmarkets wants to give you the best possible tools to profit from sports betting. Yet, you are the one in charge! Make sure to always defend yourself and never invest more than you are willing to lose. The future is unpredictable. One can quickly see himself/herself in a bad position if he/she does not have a previously agreed strategy in place. Register now in our Beta version with the code BM252 and receive €20 to start your sports betting investor journey with us. At the end of this version, this bonus is withdrawn and you keep the profits as credit towards future experts’ fees (in the case of a loss, it’s all on us).