“How to get rich with sports betting” is a fallacy, unless luck plays a part. Betmarkets offers you a responsible way to diversify your current investments. You should dismiss any attempts to sell you the idea of turning €10 into €10,000 through betting, chances are it won’t happen anytime soon. The only way for you to profit in this market is to beat the betting houses, and that is done by finding value bets. Those who consistently find them are set to profit in the long-run.


You won’t become rich overnight through sports betting


Let’s be clear straight away, no reasonable investment will make you rich on the short term. You might know about a friend of a friend who won big through an accumulator bet or through Euromillions, but they’re the exception. Both “investments” have a negative expected value for you. On average, you will lose on the long run if you are exposed to them. If you want to know more about accumulator bets, you can check our post Accumulator bets are a great way to waste money.

Time is essential for every investment. The best results come for those who are patient enough to see the results appear. The same happens around sports betting.

After a bettor finds a strategy supported by data, he/she should test it thoroughly before starting to bet on it. If the strategy resists this first test, it can start to be applied for real. Even if the initial results are not positive, you should stick to that strategy if it has proven to pay-off in the long-run. After 6 months or 1 year (or less time if the betting volume is high), review it and see if it was profitable. Worse than having a bad plan is not having a plan at all!


“How to get rich with sports betting” – You won’t make 10 thousand euros with 10 euros


Betmarkets grants you access to proven strategies and to professionals who have successfully iterated their strategies through market shifts. We don’t think of ourselves as a gambling platform, nor should you. We are an investment platform designed for a long-term profit.

The holy grail of gambling platforms is the feeling they create in gamblers that they can hit a jackpot and become rich overnight. At Betmarkets, we do the exact opposite. In fact, as you replicate sports betting experts, you will never be exposed to those kinds of bets. Why, you might ask? Well, because those are the bets that are almost certain to make you lose money.

In addition, no bets with significant relevance to your bank are placed. All our experts operate with stakes of circa 1%, protecting you from losing your investment in losing streaks. If you are following horse racing experts, their stakes will be even lower. And that’s due to the odds they operate in: with lower probability of winning each bet, your bank management should be stricter.

Thus, it’s technically impossible to do an all-in (or something close to that) and envy your friends with the latest winning bet. Your bets will be quite dull, but you’ll be the one making money, not your friends. And, in the end, isn’t that the end goal of an investment?


Betting challenges


Another hit on the blogs for a few years now are called betting challenges. They involve betting on simple outcomes and rolling over your gains until you reach your goal. They tend to be proposed as “from €x to €y”, with “y” being ridiculously larger than “x”.

While researching for this post, we found this somewhat old thread: Are you ready for the £10 to £10k challenge? by John Baines.

There, the author states:

“And assuming every bet you place is a 1/10 shot exactly [1.10 in European odds] and they keep winning, the tenner can be turned into £10,000 in a surprisingly low 73 bets.”

If we assume that all bets are placed at 1.10, winning all of them happens 0.095% of the times. And this calculation was done without taking into account the betting house’s margin.

When events are priced at 1.10, it means that their true probability is lower to allow the betting house to profit. Let’s say that they should be priced, instead, at 1.15. The true probability of you winning this challenge is now 0.004%! More than 25 times less!

What’s the reason for this massive difference? Compounding is the answer since you’re rolling over those odds several times and suffering from the house margin every time. Putting things in another perspective: under these circumstances, you’ll win one of these challenges once in every 26,974 attempts.


The outcome


Not surprisingly, we hope, the author stopped publishing long before he reached the magical number of 73 winning bets. He lost on the 19th bet (still an amazing run, no doubt) when Celtic was shown only 1 yellow card against Barcelona. The author had bet that they would be shown more than 1.5. Curiously, that was the same game in which Celtic awed everyone by beating the European giants (2-1).

As you can see, there are no such things as magic strategies. These challenges are a good way to pay £10 for a good laugh and some banter with friends, but not more than that.


Find value in betting


The only way to profit by sports betting is finding value bets. And these are hard to find and explore. A value bet is an event that is being mispriced by the betting house. Think of them as games in which the betting house is pricing a “negative margin”: they should be priced at 1.65 but are being priced at 1.70.

You are not guaranteed to win this specific bet but, given enough time and number of bets, you’ll have an edge against the market. For every 100 €10 value bets like these you place, you’ll make, on average, €30.30. What is happening? Well, the house is expecting you to win 58.8% (1/1.70) of the bets, but you’ll be landing 60.6% (1/1.65) of them. The spread is your gain!

That’s the only thing our sports betting experts try to explore on a day-to-day basis. If they are not active in a given moment, that’s the reason: there are no value bets available!


Market Edge


Research has shown that the latest odds before the start of a match tend to be close to the “real odds” of that match (confirmed by data). Joseph Buchdahl offers a great analysis of this in Pinnacle’s forum.

This means that a bettor who bets at higher odds than the ones at which the event closes will profit on the long-run. These bettors have found value bets, as we previously explained. That’s why one of the indicators we welcome people to look at in our platform is the Market Edge: the difference between the odds they’ve bet with and the closing odds of that event. Each one of our experts is gauged based on his/her ability to beat the betting houses. Those who do that achieve a positive Market Edge and are set to gain in the long-run.

Want to know more about profiting from sports betting? Check our post!

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